Time and time again, we hear the claim from politicians, scientists, and media outlets that there is a “consensus” among climate scientists that humans are the primary driver of recent climate change, particularly within the last 10, 50, 100, or 200+ years, whichever time frame best fits their motive.
However, the consensus is widely fraudulent and is theoretically made up. In 2013, former President Barack Obama made a statement saying that 97% of climate scientists agree that global warming is primarily driven by human impact, and it is very dangerous and that we need to do something about it.
THE INITIAL SURVEY
A survey was sent out to scientists, which asked if carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas (which it is) and if humans have impact on recent climate change, particularly since 1950. One “highly cited” study found that 97% of published scientific papers favor anthropogenic global warming. However, this survey was conducted very poorly, and it should have been scrapped immediately, but of course, for political peer pressure, it wasn’t. 66% of the papers submitted to the survey took NO position on man-made global warming, thus they were scrapped, while the other 34% of papers were actually used in the survey. Out of those 34% of papers, 33% supported at the least, a minor anthropogenic impact.
So how did they come up with a “97% consensus?” Well, that’s easy; divide 33 by 34 and you get 0.97 (97%).
Two recent studies were conducted that make the numbers a little clearer.
AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY (AMS) SURVEY
In 2012, the American Meteorological Society (AMS) surveyed all of it’s 7,000 members, in which only 1,862 responded. Of the 1,862 responses, 52% thought that humans were the primary driver of climate change (Figure 1), whereas the remaining 48% of AMS members thought that climate change was partially natural, mostly natural, or totally natural, while even some responses stated that climate change is not happening, or they were not sure. And among the professional forecasters, only 38% stated that humans were the primary cause. Thus, 53% of them agree that there is widespread disagreement among AMS members on the issue. Either way you look at it, the numbers do not come even close to a “97% consensus.”
NETHERLANDS ENVIRONMENTAL AGENCY SURVEY
After the AMS conducted their survey, the Netherlands Environmental Agency also published a survey similar to the American Meteorological Society‘s. 6,550 “climate experts” were asked the question, and only 1,868 responded, which is a very similar figure to what happened with the AMS survey discussed above.
The results showed that 66% of “experts” agreed that recent global warming was primarily driven by human activities. The rest of the responses stated that they were unsure about human’s role in climate change. Once again, the survey showed that there is NO 97% consensus.
As the Fraser Institute noted, what makes this particular survey interesting is that the expertise for the respondents in the Dutch survey varied greatly. Many of them were not even working in fields related to weather or climate; some of these people were policy analysts, medical doctors, or engineers, in which many of them have no clue about the issue or any expertise to respond to such a question.
MAKING SENSE OF THE
Any way you look at it, whether you look at the initial survey, the AMS survey, or the Dutch survey, you can not come up with a 97% consensus. Politicians and scientists working under political peer pressure just come up with these ridiculous statements to fit their narrative. There is no 97% consensus. There never was, nor will there ever likely be.
“Meteorologists’ Views About Global Warming.” American Meteorological Society, https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00091.1
“Putting the ‘Con’ in Consensus; Not Only Is There No 97 per Cent Consensus among Climate Scientists, Many Misunderstand Core Issues: Op-Ed.” Fraser Institute, 4 June 2015, http://www.fraserinstitute.org/article/putting-con-consensus-not-only-there-no-97-cent-consensus-among-climate-scientists-many.
“The 52% Consensus.” The Deplorable Climate Science Blog, realclimatescience.com/the-52-consensus/.