UAH‘s Version 6.0 of the Global Average Lower Tropospheric Temperature Anomaly for September 2018 was 0.14°C above the 1981-2010 30-year average, which was down 0.05°C from August 2018 (0.19°C). Last month was the coolest month since April of 2015 and the coolest September in ten years.
The long-term linear temperature trend since January 1979 remains at +0.13°C per decade, but there is a trend of +/-0.01°C for the past 20 years; since 1998.
The NECP CFSv2 model off of WeatherBELL Analytics L.L.C. shows September 2018’s global temperature anomaly for the land surface and ocean at 0.153°C above the 1981-2010 long-term average, down 0.003°C from August 2018 (0.159°C).
Overall, when the lower troposphere, land and sea surface temperatures are averaged, they globally averaged 0.1465°C above the long-term average, down 0.028°C from August 2018 (0.1745°C). The graph below shows a cooling trend during the 1950s and 1960s, which followed the warm spike of the 1930s and 1940s. After the cooling, was a ten-year pause in global temperatures during the 1970s, and during the 1980s and 1990s, we saw a warming trend. Since 1998, we have seen a 20-year pause in global temperatures, and as of now, it appears that we are headed into another prolonged cooling period starting NOW and accelerating in 2021.
Particular areas of interest were North America, Australia, South Africa, South America, Southern Asia, and Antarctica, which featured abnormally low temperatures. Antarctica and Canada were exceptionally cool, averaging about 3 to 5°C cooler than average. The Arctic on the other hand was abnormally warm, averaging about 1.5°C above average, but this can be attributed to cyclically warmed oceans due to the current positive phase of the PDO. It is also worth noting that the United Kingdom had their coolest September in over 20 years.
WORKS CITED
WeatherBELL Models | Premium Weather Maps, models.weatherbell.com/temperature.php.
“Books.” Roy Spencer PhD RSS, http://www.drroyspencer.com/2018/10/uah-global-temperature-update-for-september-2018-0-14-deg-c/.
Maue, Ryan N. Models 3.0 | Wx.graphics | Weather.us, lab.weathermodels.com/models/temperature/jra55_temperature.php.
GREAT analysis. Thanks!
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You are welcome Jamie! 😉 Glad you liked the analysis. I will continue do these from now on for each month. I like my measurements the best because of how I take into account the global SST, Land Surface, + Lower Atmosphere whereas UAH only does LT, and CFSv2 does Land + Ocean. To get an accurate assessment, we need to average both, which is what I did 🙂
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💯💯💯
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Smart
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Thanks Zach!
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Keep up the good work!
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You too buddy. Thanks!
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The point of this second experiment is to demonstrate that a surface with multiple outgoing heat transfer pathways cannot radiate as a BB. Just as reflected, transmitted, absorbed incoming radiation must equal 1.0 the outgoing radiative and non-radiative heat transfer processes must equal 1.0. Radiation does not function independently from the non-radiative processes.
The immersion heater is feeding 1,180 W of power into the insulated pot of water which is boiling at an equilibrium temperature of 200 °F. (6,300 feet) The only significant pathway for energy out of this system is through the water’s surface.
Any surface at 200 °F radiates at 1,021 W/m^2. This is 2.38% of the 42,800 W/m^2 power input to the system. That means 97.6% of the power input is carried away by non-radiative heat transfer processes, i.e. conduction, convection and evaporation.
Likewise, the significant non-radiative heat transfer processes of the atmospheric molecules render the 396 W/m^2 LWIR radiation upwelling from the surface impossible.
No 396 W/m^2 upwelling BB LWIR means there is
No energy to power the 333 W/m^2 GHG out-of-nowhere perpetual energy loop,
No energy for the CO2/GHGs to “trap” or absorb and re-radiate “warming” the atmosphere/surface,
No RGHE or 33 C warmer and
No man-caused climate change.
This second experiment validates the findings of the modest experiment.
Modest experiment:
https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:6394226874976919552
Annotated TFK_bams09
https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:6447825132869218304
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