UAH‘s Version 6.0 of the Global Average Lower Tropospheric Temperature Anomaly for September 2018 was 0.14°C above the 1981-2010 30-year average, which was down 0.05°C from August 2018 (0.19°C). Last month was the coolest month since April of 2015 and the coolest September in ten years.
The long-term linear temperature trend since January 1979 remains at +0.13°C per decade, but there is a trend of +/-0.01°C for the past 20 years; since 1998.
The NECP CFSv2 model off of WeatherBELL Analytics L.L.C. shows September 2018’s global temperature anomaly for the land surface and ocean at 0.153°C above the 1981-2010 long-term average, down 0.003°C from August 2018 (0.159°C).
Overall, when the lower troposphere, land and sea surface temperatures are averaged, they globally averaged 0.1465°C above the long-term average, down 0.028°C from August 2018 (0.1745°C). The graph below shows a cooling trend during the 1950s and 1960s, which followed the warm spike of the 1930s and 1940s. After the cooling, was a ten-year pause in global temperatures during the 1970s, and during the 1980s and 1990s, we saw a warming trend. Since 1998, we have seen a 20-year pause in global temperatures, and as of now, it appears that we are headed into another prolonged cooling period starting NOW and accelerating in 2021.
Particular areas of interest were North America, Australia, South Africa, South America, Southern Asia, and Antarctica, which featured abnormally low temperatures. Antarctica and Canada were exceptionally cool, averaging about 3 to 5°C cooler than average. The Arctic on the other hand was abnormally warm, averaging about 1.5°C above average, but this can be attributed to cyclically warmed oceans due to the current positive phase of the PDO. It is also worth noting that the United Kingdom had their coolest September in over 20 years.
WORKS CITED
WeatherBELL Models | Premium Weather Maps, models.weatherbell.com/temperature.php.
“Books.” Roy Spencer PhD RSS, http://www.drroyspencer.com/2018/10/uah-global-temperature-update-for-september-2018-0-14-deg-c/.
Maue, Ryan N. Models 3.0 | Wx.graphics | Weather.us, lab.weathermodels.com/models/temperature/jra55_temperature.php.
