Global warming alarmists and climate scientists make a fatal mistake when assessing climate change. We often hear that extreme weather will get worse and worse due to man-made global warming. They tell us that drought, flooding, heat waves, hurricanes, tornadoes, wildfires, and just about anything else will become worse and worse due to your SUV’s CO2 emissions.
Let’s investigate these claims one by one to see if their claims are credible.
Let’s start with drought. Are droughts getting worse? Are they becoming more frequent? Well, according to the EPA, it isn’t. In fact, the alarmists’ claim is 100% backwards. Drought is actually becoming less common. Global precipitation has been increasing significantly since 1900 (Figure 1). In addition, three of the wettest years on record have occurred in the last 20 years. Climate fraudsters also blame increasing precipitation on global warming to fit their agenda.
What about flooding? Is the increase in precipitation increasing flood occurrences? Once again, the answer is NO. Data from the EPA shows that river flooding has had no trend in the U.S. since the 1960s (Figure 2).
Moving on to the next claim – are heatwaves getting worse? NO, they are not. Dr. John Christy of UAH has put together this graph (Figure 3) below, which shows that the number of 100 degree days have been decreasing since 1915.
What about hurricanes and tornadoes? Are they getting worse? Yet again, the answer is no. In fact, hurricane (Figure 4), tropical cyclone (Figure 5), and tornado (Figures 6 & 7) occurrences have been declining since the 1970s and 1950s respectively.
Lastly, wildfires. Are they getting worse? Nope. Data from Dr. John Christy (Figure 8) and from USDA (Figure 9) show that the number of wildfires and the amount of acreage burned have been declining for a long time.
If we look at a global temperature graph, you can see that as the temperatures rose between 1979 and 1998, and as the temperature stayed steady between 1998 and 2016, drought, heat waves, hurricanes, tornadoes, and forest fires became less common, which is the complete opposite of climate scientists’ and alarmists’ claims.
If you go to the years where it was colder such as the 1880s, 1890s, 1900s, 1910s, 1960s, and 1970s, more drought, hurricanes, and tornadoes took place during those years. The reason for these occurring during cooler years all has to do with the Sun.
When there is a high sunspot count, like there had been recently, the Earth becomes warmer due to more radiation from the Sun. Therefore, we got a stable atmosphere; a warmer atmosphere, and a warmer ocean. This keeps everything calm, because the climate system is balanced for a time. This is part of the reason we haven’t seen any violent tornado destruction in the past 10 years or major hurricane activity between 2005 and 2017.
When there is a low sunspot count, the Earth’s atmosphere cools, but the oceans and surface stay relatively warm. This makes the atmosphere unstable, which is a recipe for disaster.
Hurricanes fuel off of warm water, and an unstable climate system. This is called the Hurricane Sunspot Theory. Read more on that here.
We are now headed for another solar minimum, which means that the Earth’s temperature will drop 1 to 2 degrees Celsius over the next decade and a half. This will slowly make the atmosphere more unstable, thus increasing the number and strength of extreme weather events. This uptick in [extreme weather] will surely be blamed on the nonsense of human-caused global boiling, but those of us who understand the climate system and the atmosphere know otherwise.
Dr. John Christy Testimony to Congress Number 1
Dr. John Christy Testimony to Congress Number 2
“Climate Change Indicators: River Flooding.” EPA, Environmental Protection Agency, 17 Dec. 2016, http://www.epa,gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-river-flooding.
“Climate Change Indicators: U.S. and Global Precipitation.” EPA, Environmental Protection Agency, 17 Dec. 2016, http://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-us-and-global-precipitation.
“Extreme Weather Page.” Watts Up With That?, 20 Apr. 2014, wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/reference-pages/climatic-phenomena-pages/extreme-weather-page/.
“Indicator 3.16: Area and Percent of Forest Affected by Abiotic Agents.” Polybius at The Clickto Network, Fox News, web.archive.org/web/2014913135647/http://www.fs.fed.us:90/research/sustain/criteria-indicators/indicators/indicator-316.php.
“Tornado Page.” Watts Up With That?, 27 Dec. 2015, wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/reference-pages/climatic-phenomena-pages-tornado/.